Macenstein

Posted by Dr. Macenstein

As Macworld Expos approach, traditionally Apple likes to put out a teaser of some sort to help generate some much UNneeded hype. This year Apple has chosen an image that gives up very little in the way of details. No real specific hints at music, photos, video, or new hardware. All it tells us is “The first 30 years were just the beginning. Welcome to 2007.”

While we all know the iTV is coming out, and we all THINK we know the iPhone is coming out, neither is likely to be released at Macworld. Recent reports claim that Steve Jobs’ keynote speech is slated to take up about 2 hours worth of time; about 30 minutes longer than usual. While some may expect this to mean that Steve has a lot of great new things to announce, I actually fear the opposite.

You see, I think (and this is based on nothing more than reading the same rumors we all are) that Apple is going to just miss the mark at the expo by about 1 or 2 months. If the expo were held in March, there would be an iPhone, there would be an iTV. From what I have read, delays in product manufacturing may have pushed these two devices’ timetables back a bit, and while Apple often announces new hardware at Macworld, and then ships it 3 months later, those are usually updates to existing lines people are familiar with, such as a MacBook with a faster chip.

For something as new as the iTV or iPhone, I feel Steve needs to be able to say “And it’s available TODAY” at the end of his speech to get the maximum bang for his publicity buck.

I think that Apple has been aware that they were not going to hit a Macworld deadline for the iTV and iPhone for some time, so I think they are looking to please us with as many “minor” (and I use the term loosely) updates as they can. So, to that end I will make a couple predictions, like everyone else, based mainly on no new information, and 1 bit of sleuthing I am quite proud of.

Predictions

First, I think the rumors of updated displays would be a no-brainer, as the rumored built-in iSight cameras is a very consumery thing, and Apple’s MacExpos have traditionally been all about the consumer. 8 minutes killed.

Second, the iTV will get it’s REAL name. this seems fairly obvious. Apple announced and even showed a prototype of the device many months ago, so we all know it is coming. Steve will likely spend about 15-20 minutes demoing it, and finally tell us its shipping name (or just finalizing they couldn’t think of anything catchier, and are somehow sticking with it, despite Elgato’s EyeTV software).

Third, we’ll see an update to the entire iLife lineup. This usually happens at the January Expo, and since iLife is made for the consumer crowd, this is the place to announce it. This will also eat up a good 50 minutes or so with demoes of features and such.

Fourth, Adobe will probably come on stage and tell how great PhotoShop CS3 beta is doing, and how many downloads it has gotten, and blah blah blah looking forward to After Effects 8 and such. 10 minutes down the drain right there.

Okay, so we are more or less up to an hour and a half, the usual runtime for a Stevenote. There is a chance there will be an update to iWork as well, so maybe throw in another 10 minutes for that.

Ok, how does steve kill the last 20 minutes? With the “true” video iPod we’ve longed for for so long we actually stopped writing rumors about it. There has been very little excitement/rumors circulating about the 16×9 iPod with touch bezel despite actually seeing fairly convincing proof of such a device via patents filed by Apple earlier this year.

Well, here’s my sixth and final prediction, and the only one worth reading really. I predict the 16×9 video iPod will be Steve’s “One Last Thing”, and in fact, Steve gave us the hint already on Apple’s website. You see, the whole allure of the “true” video iPod, as folks like to call it, is it will have a 16×9 aspect ratio (or close to it). Well, guess what? I took the teaser image from Apple’s website, then pasted it into an HD 1280 x 720 composition in Photoshop, and scaled it. Guess what? It is exactly 16×9 (ok, well, 1280 x 723). So there you have it. Apple’s hint for the expo this year is not nested in some clever wording or picture of spotlights, it is in the physical dimensions of the image itself.

Impressed?

Well, ok, how about… nothing says “consumer” like a new iPod and they haven’t really been updated in almost 2 years?

So there you have it. My Macworld predictions, based on nothing and with no specific details about any products. This may be the first year I am not 100% wrong.