iPhone pushes Apple stock up over 26% in 1 month, but can Apple deliver?
Posted by Dr. Macenstein
Anyone who thinks the iPhone launch will not be a successful one (we’re looking at you, Steve Ballmer) need only take a look at Apple’s stock price this month. Currently, Apple is up 26.7% from it’s $90 price just 30 days ago. Anticipation is high, waiting lists are long, and fake eBay iPhone auctions are rampant. There can be no doubt that the iPhone launch will be one of the most successful product launches in history.
Assuming Apple can meet demand, that is.
You would think Apple would learn from its past mistakes, especially for a product as hyped as the iPhone. Yet Macsimum News cites a report from research analysts the Channel Checkers which claims demand for the iPhone is likely to outstrip the supply come launch time. Channel Checkers surveyed Cingular stores around the country, and cited reports of some stores (such as an NYC outlet) having waiting lists numbering into the thousands.
The anticipated shortage seems to be due in large part to a rumored parts delay affecting HonHai, the company contracted by Apple to manufacture the iPhones.
Apple has reportedly ordered 12 million iPhones for the launch later [next] month, but it is now questionable whether they will be able to meet that goal. Apple recently denied reports the iPhone’s launch would be delayed, however, this does not necessarily mean some buyers won’t be facing a long wait if the manufacturing delay rumors prove true.
But delay or no, assuming the iPhone works “likes butter”, as it did in Steve’s demo, then we’re confident Steve Ballmer will once again have the chance to eat his words.
I don’t think that it was ever Apple’s intention to have 12 million iPhones ready to ship on game day. That’s probably physically impossible, and besides, Apple and AT&T can only sign up people so fast, because of the cellular plans. This will be an unprecedented success right from the word Go, but it will be extremely difficult to sell more than 1 million iPhones in the first month (I’m guessing it will take 6-8 weeks to hit that mark). That 12 million number from Hon Hai most likely represents the first manufacturing cycle, which would cover the first year of production. Frankly, Apple may need more then 12M in the first 12-month period, but there’s no possible way they were ever shooting for 12M on day one. Remember, they’re (conservative) target is 10M iphones in the next 18 months, which they will probably double.
While all of us Mac lovers are routing for the iPhone (we pretty much have to, as everything else is slated for the fall), one really has to wonder where Channel Checkers gets it’s drugs. Jobs said the sales goal for the iPhone was 10 million units by the end of 2008 worldwide, total (a pretty tall order, in my view, but I’m willing to be surprised). Why on earth would Apple order 12 million units to be delivered in the month of the US launch? Well that, and the iPhone is launching in June, not “later this month”; which would be May.
Thanks Scott, momentary brain fart. Edited.
-The Doc
I think the iPhone is a great way to introduce new customers to the Apple platform. First an iPod, then a Mac. First an iPhone, then a Mac. And once they go Mac….